Day of Reckoning

by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. 07-05-09

This is a day of reckoning for California and, ultimately, for all of America.

Will our nation’s largest debtors meet their massive financial obligations? Or will many ultimately default?

In California, the answer given by the state Treasurer’s office was a commitment never to default, seeking to directly refute my forecast issued here 13 days ago under the headline “California Collapsing.”

According to the BusinessJournal:

“The California’s state Treasurer’s office on Monday refuted an analyst’s recommendation last week that investors dump California municipal bonds and that the state is likely to default.

“Analyst Martin Weiss of Weiss Research said in a June 22 report that California’s financial woes create ‘a very high probability’ that California will eventually miss debt service payments.

“Mr. Weiss’ analysis and recommendation, to put it kindly, is misinformed,” responded Tom Dresslar, a spokesman for state Treasurer Bill Lockyer. “Even the credit rating agencies said, in announcing possible downgrades, that the likelihood of default is low.”

Ironically, just two days later …

California Defaulted on Its
Short-Term Debt Obligations

To the contrary, California’s budget crisis is rooted in an unprecedented economic depression with 11.5 percent unemployment and the greatest concentration of mortgage delinquencies in the nation. Even if the i.o.u.’s are ultimately paid in full, California’s debt troubles are not going away.

Why I Expect a Default on California’s Bonds FULL STORY