by Mike Larson
We're a net debtor nation, and we're going to have to borrow hundreds of billions of dollars to make good on all of our promises.
That means a flood of Treasury debt the likes of which we've never seen is going to wash over the market in the coming year or two.
Bond traders know that will overwhelm bond demand. So they're not sticking around. They're selling the heck out of bonds NOW, driving prices down and rates up.
Look, politicians and policymakers would like you to think they can just wave a magic wand, drive mortgage rates down, save the banking sector, and return us to the happy-go-lucky, reckless lending days of 2003-2007.
But they can't. The bond market is pushing back and saying loud and clear: "There is no such thing as a free lunch."
My bottom line message hasn't changed, either. I continue to expect any recovery in the housing and credit markets to take a long time. And I continue to believe that while all of these government bailout programs can treat some of the downturn's symptoms, they can't cure the underlying disease. The only real cures are time and price changes. Full Story.